In Doha, the Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Zelenskyy agreed with the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, and the Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani on a partnership in the defense sector for at least 10 years. Wo Photo by: Presidential Office of Ukraine/picture-alliance/dpa/AP Images
Ukraine reached 10-year agreements with a number of Middle Eastern countries to help produce and utilize anti-drone technology as part of their defense against such attacks from Iran, Russia, and potentially other nations as well. Those agreements, coupled with a recent shift in Russia’s ability to access Starlink internet services and other communication platforms is starting to change the outlook for the war in Ukraine.
Why it matters: Since the war began four years ago, the question of its outcome has largely been when, not if, Russia would eventually force an advantageous ending. While it’s still unlikely that Ukraine will walk away from any eventual negotiations whole, anything they can do to increase the cost for Russia and gain back territory before those negotiations resume could make a substantial difference in their nation’s future prospects.
The backstory: New friends in the Middle East
As Russia begins its spring offensive, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has spent recent days on a tour of the Middle East, finalizing defense agreements with countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. While details are still emerging, the discussions have largely revolved around trading Ukrainian anti-drone technology to help defend against Iranian attacks in return for weapons and ammunition that Ukraine can use against Russia.
Of particular interest to Ukraine are the PAC-3 missiles necessary to guard against ballistic missile attacks.
The Gulf nations fired an estimated 800 of them in the first days of the war with Iran. By contrast, Ukraine has only received about 600 of the same weapons since Russia invaded in 2022, and getting more from the US appears increasingly unlikely, considering how much of our own stock we’ve burned through since the war with Iran started.
But while those missiles were necessary against Russia’s biggest attacks, far too often they’ve been used to shoot down Iranian drones that cost a fraction of the price to produce. And that’s where Ukraine steps in.
Russia has fired tens of thousands of Iran’s Shahed drones at Ukrainian targets over the last four years, so they’ve gotten plenty of practice at knocking them down. To that end, they’ve already sent more than 200 air defense personnel to the Middle East to help train Gulf nations to defend against these attacks.
And given that the deals are reported to last at least 10 years and include the construction of joint-production lines to mass-produce these anti-drone munitions, it would appear these alliances will play a large role in shaping the region’s geopolitical landscape for some time to come.
However, the Middle East is not the only unexpected source of help Ukraine has received in recent months.
How Starlink changed the war
In the “News worth knowing” section of last week’s Focus, I mentioned the role that Elon Musk and Starlink have played in helping Ukraine to turn the tide in their fight with Russia. In the week since, more details have emerged regarding just how much of an impact the decision to aid Ukraine by shutting out Russia is having, both on the front lines and much closer to home for Putin and his government.
Toward the start of February, SpaceX—which runs Starlink—adjusted the way it decides who can access its internet services. They created an approved “white list” of parties for whom the technology would function, with Ukraine making the cut while Russia did not.
While Russia was never technically supposed to have access to Starlink, they’d been using confiscated and secondhand terminals to see live battlefield video feeds and communicate with their forces. That access, in turn, allowed them to target specific units with drone strikes and adjust their deployments to fit the changing battle lines. They even used the service to prevent defections by requiring units “to send video confirmation of their location to prove they hadn’t deserted.”
As a result, the last two months have seen Ukraine achieve its largest territorial gains in the last two years. While Russia has since pushed back to a degree, they’re doing so at what the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War describes as an “unsustainable” cost.
And now there are signs that those costs may extend well beyond the battlefield.
A threat closer to home
One of the primary reasons why Vladimir Putin chose to invade Ukraine four years ago was to solidify his support among the Russian populace. When the war started, Russia’s economy was crumbling, and Putin’s approval rating had begun to fall with it. While the fighting has done little for the economy, Putin’s popularity shot up to around 83 percent after sending his troops across the border, with only a reported 4 percent of Russian citizens blaming him for the war when it began.
Had he been able to pull off a quick victory, the fight could have cemented his status as the nation’s undisputed leader for years to come. However, after four years of conflict and more than a million casualties, the cracks are starting to show.
While Starlink never played much of a civilian role in Russia, the government’s attempts to force their state-owned messaging platform called Max as the primary communication alternative for both the military and the general public has led to new protest movements among the latter. Even pro-Kremlin influencers and newspapers have started to express their frustration at the government’s restrictions.
This past weekend saw a wave of new protest requests, which is a big deal in Russia. Protesting without approval leads to a quick arrest and, at times, an all-expenses-paid trip to Siberia, while even formally submitting the paperwork can carry quite a bit of risk. As such, even though most were denied, the fact that many were willing to ask represents a fundamental shift in the government’s standing with its people.
Things have gotten so bad that Russia has instituted mobile internet blackouts in Moscow, with authorities touting the move as a beneficial opportunity for a “digital detox.” Unsurprisingly, few among the larger population appear to share that assessment.
As pro-Kremlin journalist Anastasia Kashevarova wrote last week, “The wall of mistrust and misunderstanding between the people and the government is growing.” Others have gone so far as to question if Putin even knows what’s going on in the country anymore.
And while it’s still unclear how much of an impact the unrest at home or the new alliances in the Middle East and beyond will have on the war in Ukraine, the situation offers a helpful reminder that we should be wary of what we consider certain.
Spiritual application: When certainty is a trap
Ever since Russia first invaded Ukraine, they have acted as if their victory was inevitable. Even when the quick conquest they expected didn’t happen, they simply shifted to the kind of methodical attrition that has marked their military approach for much of Russia’s history. And, to be clear, if the war continues indefinitely, the odds are still good that Ukraine will eventually fall.
But what if it doesn’t? What if cracks in the foundation back home prevent Putin from achieving the kind of triumph he feels entitled to?
Unfortunately, trusting that our present circumstances will not change is hardly a mistake only governments can make.
Most of us build our lives around a certain set of assumptions, whether we acknowledge them openly or not. And it’s those assumptions that often give us a sense of stability and purpose.
For some, it’s the idea that friends and family will always be there to support them. For others, it’s the notion that their job will provide them with a sense of security and identity. Still more may look to their intellect, personality, or tenacity as the net to catch them if everything else starts to fall apart.
However, Scripture is clear that the only foundation we can truly rely on is God and his word.
When Jesus spoke to that truth at the end of the Sermon on the Mount, he likened it to a house built on the rock rather than on the sand (Matthew 7:24–27). What’s important to notice about that analogy, though, is that both houses will look the same until the storm comes to challenge their stability. It’s only when the wind and the rain beat against the walls that you can know for certain whether the foundation is secure.
How firm is your foundation?
One of the sad ironies of being human is that we live in a world filled with storms and shattered homes, yet most of us are still tempted to go through life thinking our sand is different. Sure, it failed for others, but it’ll hold up for me.
We may even be able to point to some rock down below the baseboards where we go to church on the weekends or read our Bibles and pray like a good Christian should. But notice that Jesus did not say that those who hear these words will be secure. Rather, it was those who hear these words and do them who can trust that their house will not fall.
To put it simply, belief is not enough unless that belief changes the way we live. And we need to apply that truth to every facet of our lives.
So, how is your foundation looking today? Are there any areas where you’ve built your life on assumptions or beliefs other than the word of God?
Whether you woke up today in the midst of a storm or surrounded by sunshine and a gentle breeze, now is the perfect time to ask the Holy Spirit to help you make sure that every inch of your foundation is secure in Christ.
Let’s start now.
News worth knowing
1. TSA workers get paid
After a bipartisan Senate agreement to fund every part of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) except ICE and immigration enforcement failed in the House, President Trump issued an executive order last Friday to ensure that at least the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) workers would receive their paychecks. In response, wait times at airports have largely returned to normal, though it’s unclear how long that will continue.
Why it matters
Because they are considered essential workers, TSA employees had been forced to work without pay since DHS funding lapsed in February. As a result, more than 500 left to find other jobs, while thousands more called out rather than consistently show up for work. Airport wait times had become a nightmare while ICE agents were deployed to help with security. At this point, it appears that ICE is there to stay until a more stable situation is restored.
What to watch
While backpay was largely funded for TSA employees, DHS remains closed as Congress takes a two-week break for Easter and Passover. As such, it’s unclear how long the paychecks will keep coming, considering that the funding from the executive order will not last indefinitely. Will an agreement to fund the department—either in part or whole—come before the money runs out?
2. Who is running Iran?
As President Trump and others in his administration continue to tout ongoing negotiations to bring the war with Iran to an end, one of the most pressing questions is whether Iran still has someone capable of making that decision. With the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, thought to be either severely injured or dead, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is widely seen as running the show. However, they have also suffered heavy losses, leaving little certainty about whether the group still has any real hierarchy in place.
Why it matters
The IRGC commands a military force that is comparable in size to the national military. However, they also control wide swaths of the economy and tend to be extremist in their religious views. As a result, it’s difficult to understand what terms they may be willing to accept in return for peace.
What to watch
The energy crisis created by Iran’s restrictions on the Straight of Hormuz has meant that their government has received more in sanctions relief and oil revenues from a month of fighting than they did from years of negotiations. Will their new standing make them more or less willing to discuss peace? Along the same lines, will the United States and Israel be willing to let them keep any of those gains, or would they insist on terms that represent a more absolute victory?
The Dispatch has more on the story
3. Supreme Court rules ban on conversion therapy unconstitutional
The Supreme Court ruled 8–1 earlier today that Colorado’s ban on LGBTQ+ “conversion therapy” for minors infringes on the First Amendment. While Colorado officials attempted to argue that the law regulates professional conduct rather than speech, all but one of the Court’s justices saw it differently. As Justice Neil Gorsuch, who wrote the majority opinion, described, “Colorado may regard its policy as essential to public health and safety. Certainly, censorious governments throughout history have believed the same. But the first Amendment stands as a shield against any effort to enforce orthodoxy in thought or speech in this country.”
Why it matters
Kaley Chiles, the counselor who brought the case to the Court, argued that the law would allow her to help children embrace a transgender identity but not to question that identity. It’s unclear if the same ruling would stand if it was applied in a manner that, as Justice Elana Kagan put it, was more “viewpoint-neutral.”
What to watch
Similar laws to Colorado’s exist in almost half the country. Will the Supreme Court’s ruling establish the necessary precedent to challenge those restrictions as well?
God is good
While the last few years have been filled with tragedy and trials for many in Israel, the fighting and constant proximity to death have driven many in the nation to seek comfort and support in God. A November poll found that 27 percent of Jewish Israelis are more religiously observant than before Hamas attacked, while the Christian organization Jews for Jesus has seen a steady increase in people looking to know more about Christ and go deeper in their faith.
Kingdom impact
The rise in those accepting Jesus as their Lord has been steady nationwide. To date, that looks less like a mass revival and more, as Aaron Abramson with Jews for Jesus describes, like an “open door and steady response.” And while Christians remain a small minority among the Israeli population, there appears to be a genuine desire for the peace only Christ can give.
Prayer point
Will you pray that God will continue to work in Israel to lead both Israelis and Palestinians to faith in Christ? And will you pray that he will strengthen the Christians in Israel and empower them to live out their faith in a way that draws others to the Lord?
Christianity Today has more on the story
