“The moment the Middle East changed forever”?

Some years ago, I was invited to teach a Bible conference at a church in Missouri. One day I happened to be outside when two B-2 Spirit bombers were returning to the nearby Whiteman Air Force Base after a test run. They are unlike any airplane I have ever seen—their “flying wing” design makes them seem to glide in the air despite their massive size. They are so quiet that you cannot hear them until they have passed overhead. They project power viscerally as well as militarily.

Saturday night, that power was on full display when the US employed them to stage attacks on nuclear development sites in Iran.

CNN called the strikes “a momentous moment—and gamble—for the world.” It added, “A midsummer night in 2025 could come to be remembered as the moment the Middle East changed forever; when the fear of nuclear annihilation was lifted from Israel; when Iran’s power was neutered and America’s soared.” Conversely, “The risk now is that the Iranian regime responds by attacking US forces, targets, or civilians in the region and the conflict escalates into a full-scale war.”

“Known knowns” and “known unknowns”

US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld famously stated in 2002:

There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know.

Let’s start with some “known knowns”:

• Six B-2 bombers dropped twelve GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Projectiles (MOPs), often called “bunker-buster bombs,” on Fordow, which President Trump called the “primary site.” This was the first combat use of the bomb in history.
• The US struck Natanz, the largest uranium enrichment site in Iran, with two MOPs dropped from a seventh B-2 and cruise missiles launched from submarines.
• The US also hit Isfahan, Iran’s largest largest nuclear research complex, with more than two dozen Tomahawk missiles launched from a US submarine.
• Deception was employed in the attacks, with B-2 bombers sent earlier to Guam as decoys. The president said last Thursday that his decision would come “within the next two weeks,” though the US launched the attack only two days later. And Whiteman Air Force Base declared a “closure for repairs” from June 16 to 23, the exact time line needed to hide the flight cycle of the bombing run.
• Both Saudi Arabia and the International Atomic Energy Agency said there has been no increase in radiation levels after the attack.

Now let’s list some “known unknowns”:

How will Iran respond against Israel?

• Iran launched a wave of missiles at Israel Sunday morning, impacting four sites and wounding at least twenty-one people. Searches are underway for people believed to be trapped under a collapsed building in Tel Aviv.
• Israel has imposed restrictions on public activities, closing schools, workplaces, and shopping centers as it awaits further responses from Tehran.
• Evacuations are being organized for Americans who wish to leave Israel.

How will Iran respond against the US?

• There are more than forty thousand US troops and military personnel stationed at around twenty bases in the Middle East. Iran could launch missile attacks against them and “swarm attacks” on US Navy warships using fast torpedo boats and drones. It could do so immediately or wait some time to launch surprise attacks in the future when US bases are no longer on maximum alert.
• Yesterday, Iran’s parliament endorsed closing the Strait of Hormuz, which has been described as “the world’s most important oil artery.” About twenty million barrels of crude oil and oil products move through the strait daily. Closing it could cause the price of oil to spike, but since this would effectively declare war against the Gulf states, one analyst doubts that Iran would take such a step.
• It could activate possible “sleeper cells” in our country and use proxy groups, organized crime links, and cyberattacks to retaliate. The Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin yesterday warning of a “heightened threat environment” in the US.
• The Houthis could target US ships in the Red Sea.

How will this conflict end?

• Iran could escalate its response into a regional, long term war involving multiple nations.

• According to former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, other nations could supply Iran with nuclear weapons.
• Or Iran could negotiate to end its nuclear program and seek peace in the region.
• The attacks could even lead to regime change in Iran.

“The only fear I have”

Let’s close with one vital “unknown unknown.”

When people tried to call the mobile phones of friends and loved ones in Iran last week, some heard a robotic voice that said,

Hello, and thank you for taking the time to listen. Life is full of unexpected surprises, and these surprises can sometimes bring joy while, at other times, they challenge us. The key is to discover the strength within us to overcome these challenges.

The messages were widely heard after Iran imposed nationwide temporary restrictions last Wednesday on internet access. Neither Iran nor Israel has made a public statement on them.

But I will.

The unknowable consequences of Saturday’s events show that even the greatest superpower in human history cannot control the future ramifications of present actions. The “strength within us” is insufficient to the “challenges” that lie before us.

With this exception: When we make Christ our Lord, his Spirit comes to indwell us as the temple of the living God (1 Corinthians 3:16). Then God “is able to do far more abundantly than all that we ask or think, according to the power at work within us” (Ephesians 3:20, my emphasis). But this power is an “unknown unknown” to those who trust in “chariots” and “horses” so fully that they do not “trust in the name of the LORD our God” (Psalm 20:7).

Fearful times are providential opportunities to identify the true source of our hope. Humans will always fail us, because we are a fallen race. By contrast, God’s “divine power has granted to us all things that pertain to life and godliness” (2 Peter 1:3). He is “able to make all grace abound to you, so that having all sufficiency in all things at all times, you may abound in every good work” (2 Corinthians 9:8). Your Father “will supply every need of yours according to his riches in glory in Christ Jesus” (Philippians 4:19).

AW Tozer therefore testified:

The only fear I have is to fear to get out of the will of God. Outside of the will of God, there’s nothing I want, and in the will of God, there’s nothing I fear, for God has sworn to keep me in his will. If I’m out of his will, that’s another matter. But if I’m in his will, he’s sworn to keep me.

What do you fear most today?

Quote for the day:

“Pray, and let God worry” (Martin Luther).

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