A soldier of Ukraine's 141st separate infantry brigade rides in a pickup truck at the frontline in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Monday, Aug. 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Andriy Andriyenko)
On Wednesday, Ukraine attacked Moscow—among other targets—in one of its largest drone strikes of the war. While casualties were minimal, with Russia claiming to have shot down each of the drones, it represents a further escalation in the region that has left the war’s future even less certain than before. As such, now seems like a good time to take a look at where both sides stand as the first whisps of winter begin to draw near.
Greg Myre recently published an update on three of Ukraine’s borders, and it speaks to how difficult it can be to measure progress in war: In the North, Ukrainian troops carried out a “surprise invasion” on August 6, referred to as the Kursk Operation, and have continued to hold their position. It’s estimated that 2-3000 Russian soldiers are pinned down in the Glushkovsky district. Luke Harding and Dan Sabbagh in Kyiv report that Russian civilians have escaped the area on small boats.
In the east, 250 miles from the Kursk region, Russian forces have continued to gain ground on Ukraine’s crucial military supply lines and critical cities, specifically in the town of Donetsk, causing Ukrainians to evacuate the nearby town of Pokrovsk.
South, in the Black Sea, Ukraine has made significant naval advances, delivering an “ongoing series of powerful blows” to the Russian navy. These attacks have allowed the Ukrainians to regain exportation channels of agricultural products to world markets.
A bird’s eye view of each side’s advances seems to show a “seesaw” effect, with the Ukranians gaining ground in the north, and the Russians continuing to push inwards from the east. Matthew Savill, an expert in military sciences, believes it is “too early to say whether Ukraine’s Kursk attack was a brilliant stratagem that wrong-footed the Russians or a disastrous error that would ultimately wipe out its best forces.”
Defense and security analyst Michael Clarke remarks that the “dynamism” of the battlefield in recent weeks shows that both sides are seeing and seizing military opportunities. Yet he comments that with Winter on its way, freezing up much of the battlefield, time will soon tell which offensive strategy will prove most successful: the Ukrainian advance in the Kursk region or the Russian advance from the east.
The Kursk Operation
Zelensky has stated that the creation of a “buffer zone” in Russia is the operation’s main aim. Sources show Ukrainian forces bombing bridges in the region and gaining territory in tanks. According to Russian reports, all three bridges of the Seym River have either been “destroyed or damaged.”
Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s top military commander, has assessed that Ukraine now controls 74 villages and towns in the Kursk region, holding approximately 400 square miles of Russian territory. Mire suggests that Syrsky’s claims may be “upbeat” and admits these figures cannot be independently confirmed.
Religious Tension
Relatedly, Ukraine’s parliament passed a bill banning activities of religious organizations with ties to Russia last Tuesday. Its parliament voted to ban the Russian-linked Ukrainian Orthodox church, accusing it of siding with Moscow.
Zelensky says the ban will boost Ukraine’s “spiritual independence.” Meanwhile, the Russians judge the ban as “illegal.” Yet President Zelenky’s stance and the parliamentary votes symbolize the Ukrainian government’s desire to pursue complete separation from Russia.
President Zelenksky’s address on August 19
On Monday, President Zelensky continued to exhort the Ukrainian army and ask for international support, claiming there are “no vacations in war.” In his address, he called out to brigades by name, encouraging them to stand strong: “Thank you, warriors! Thank you for your strength,” later adding, “Your resilience, warriors, matters for all of Ukraine . . . Thank you! . . . Well done!”
It has been more than 900 days since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, and the world continues to look on as civilians on both sides either evacuate their homes or learn to live with the constant threat of bombing and explosions while soldiers, military, and political leaders hold their ground.
With seemingly no end in sight, let’s continue to pray for Christ’s ultimate shalom, for His kingdom to come, and for his desire to be done in our world.
Jesus, you are the true King. Exert your rule over our lands, over our hearts, and over our minds as we pursue your peace.
As part of his final lesson before the crucifixion and resurrection, Jesus told his disciples, “I have said these things to you, that in me you may have peace. In the world you will have tribulation. But take heart; I have overcome the world” (John 16:33).
Where do you need that peace today?
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