Why gas prices are rising, prediction markets exposed, Talarico's theology, Oscars recap & March Madness | Ep. 61

Conner Jones: [00:00:02] Hi, I'm Conner Jones.

Micah Tomasella: [00:00:03] I'm Micah Tomasella.

Conner Jones: [00:00:05] And this is Culture Brief, a Denison Forum podcast where we are navigating the constant stream of top stories and news, politics, sports, pop culture, technology, apparently military operations and so much more. And Micah, it's been another stacked week, but you know what? We got March Madness around the corner. I'm looking forward to that. Unfortunately, the US lost in baseball to Venezuela. A lot of a lot of geopolitical aspects to that one too. But man.

Micah Tomasella: [00:00:30] We'll give, we'll give. We'll give them that one. I think they needed that one. All right. So here's what we're talking about today. I'm going to talk about the straight of Hormuz because you guys have been hearing it in your news feeds over and over and over again. I'm going to talk about the a little bit of the history of it, why it matters, why it's important. going to talk about Carg Island as well. Micah, Carg Island, I've been waiting for you to talk about Carg Island in Iran. Well, here you go. Connor is going to do a segment on prediction markets. A lot of wild stuff swirling around there. We've got some really interesting mailbag questions. We're going to talk a little bit more March Madness towards the end of the show. So let's jump into the brief.

Conner Jones: [00:01:07] The brief.

Micah Tomasella: [00:01:12] All right. Why, Connor, are the straight of Hormuz and Carg Island so vital to the world? That's a great question. Are you going to answer it or are you assuming I asked that rhetorically?

Conner Jones: [00:01:25] I couldn't tell if you were sending it up for me.

Micah Tomasella: [00:01:26] No, don't answer it because if you answer it, I'm about to answer it, so don't answer it. Well, everybody's everybody's wondering, you know, why is this little waterway so vital to the world? Why is it sending so many countries into an absolute tizzy? I mean, there are there are countries on lockdown because they do not have the energy that they need to be able to sustain shortening work weeks, canceling large events, all those things. So here's what's happening. You've probably seen headlines about oil prices and rising shipping disruptions and a lot of that traces back to one place and one place only, the straight of Hormuz. It's a narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula. And when I say narrow, I mean very narrow. And it's the only way oil from the Persian Gulf states from the Persian Gulf area gets out to the global market. Roughly one out of every five barrels of oil in the world passes through that strip of water. That strip of water is needed to produce 20% of the oil that the world needs, that the countries of the world's needs. So when it gets disrupted, the whole world feels it. And then inside the Gulf, you've got Carg Island, which is basically Iran's primary oil export hub. Most of their oil flows through that island before it reaches the straight. Okay, so here's a way to think about it. Carg Island is the loading dock, the straight of Hormuz is the exit door. If either one gets hit, supply gets tight fast. Well, let me go ahead and tell you, let me spoil it with this war conflict going on, whatever you want to call it over there. Both have been hit, have been damaged and there's been some problems, right? So here's why it matters right now. Iran doesn't have to fully shut down the straight to create problems. They're not really even capable of doing that. Just the threat of disruption. So slow or stop shipping through that, you spike insurance costs through that, you push tankers to reroute or just sit there and wait, right? As Trump said, he said it a couple days ago, he said like, all it takes is a few people with guns and that can truly disrupt it because it's such a thin waterway. And so no matter how pummeled Iran is right now, you just need a few people out there to disrupt it and that's what's creating a lot of the problems. And here at home, that's obviously showing up. We're all going to the gas pumps right now and seeing how much more expensive gas is. We've got higher gas prices, increased transportation costs, and eventually higher prices on everyday goods because energy touches literally everything. So Connor, what have been your first impressions or, you know, how have you been thinking about this in terms of, man, it's just such a thin strip of a waterway and then you've got this oil refinery export hub and then Israel hit that export hub and then America was like, don't do that. And then all these tankers are just sitting and waiting, you know, and we've seen those videos on social media of people who are actually on those tankers. I mean, what is your impression of all this been?

Conner Jones: [00:04:23] Yeah, well, you know what's funny is I asked a guy this weekend who's kind of aware of the news and everything going on and I said, how are you feeling about this whole Iran conflict? He goes, you know, I was pretty much indifferent for the last two weeks until I went to Costco this weekend. And I went to the Costco gas pump and the gas prices were way higher and the grocery prices, he was like, I'm starting to notice an increase. He said, well, that's definitely going to affect the way I and probably a bunch of Americans think about this whole thing. And it's true. Now, you mentioned last week that the straight of Hormuz as important as it is to everybody in the world, it really matters for I think a lot of Asian countries and even European countries, which is why Trump is trying to get those countries to put together a collective to protect the straight of Hormuz and kind of like escort ships through the straight with their navies because he's saying, we don't need the straight of Hormuz as much. It will impact the global markets, but man, this is where a lot of the Asian nations get their oil from. A lot of Europe and Africa gets their oil. They need that straight opened up and free flowing. But yeah, it's it's really starting to pile up over there in terms of ships waiting. And then Carg Island, Trump, he's been interesting with that. Obviously the US pummeled it. Like we pummeled a lot of their oil stuff the other day, but not all of it because Trump knows that you need to keep the refineries up and running for if the US was to take over the Carg Island or something or another country gets control of it. He's also seeming to threaten like this might be where we get boots on the ground is invading this little like five mile strip of island to take over their oil facilities and there's there's Marines on the way is what he said and ordered a ship with 25 or I think 2500 Marines to the region and there's the strategic thought that this might be a place where we might try to literally land on the island and take it over.

Micah Tomasella: [00:06:00] Well, there you go. Yes, I did hear about that, but obviously there's a lot of things that are said that doesn't necessarily mean that it's going to be done. But yes, I did hear about that as well. Okay, so why this region has always mattered. This is not new. Let me give you an example from the past. During the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, both sides were targeting oil tankers in what was called the tanker war. The goal was simple, disrupt energy flow and hurt the global economy. So that happened back in the 80s. What's interesting is the geography of this hasn't changed at all. The same narrow waterway that mattered 40 years ago still matters today because no matter how advanced the world gets, that's what's an interesting thought to me. The world is becoming so much more advanced. We're still dependent on physical routes and real supply lines. A very thin strip of waterway, the world is very dependent upon it. No matter how much we've figured out how advanced things have gotten since the 80s, for example, there's still just very basic logistical problems. If the oil tankers can't get through with the oil, 20% of the world's oil supply cannot get through. That's going to create big problems and big reactions in the market.

Conner Jones: [00:07:03] Yeah, unless you're Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the house in the 90s who literally recommended this week, he wrote a letter to President Trump asking him to, I think drop 12 nuclear bombs on an area of the Arabian Peninsula to open up a new waterway. So, you know, maybe technology could do it, Micah.

Micah Tomasella: [00:07:20] Well, you and I were chatting about this yesterday. Personally, I'm going to take almost any other option than American troops on the ground.

Conner Jones: [00:07:28] Oh my gosh.

Micah Tomasella: [00:07:29] Although that sounds crazy, if that's going to stop American troops from actually being deployed and, you know, boots on the ground, then I think I think it might be worth considering. So, here's the big idea. The global economy is more fragile than it feels, and I think moments like this remind us of that. It's built on systems that work really well until they don't. And sometimes all it takes is one narrow choke point like the straight of Hormuz to create global ripple effects. But let me give you a quick spiritual application on this. This is where it gets personal. I think that there's there's probably some inferences you're already drawing based off the way that I'm already kind of setting this up, but moments like this expose how much of our sense of security is tied to things we assume will always be steady. Markets, supply chains, prices, systems. But scripture reminds us those things were never meant to carry that weight. They can't carry that weight. Isaiah 26 verses 3 and 4 says, you keep him in perfect peace whose mind is stayed on you because he trusts in you. Trust in the Lord forever, for the Lord God is an everlasting rock. Everything we're watching right now is shifting. Prices shift, markets shift, global stability shifts, but God does not. He's the same yesterday, today and forever, Hebrews 13:8. So the question isn't just what's happening in the straight of Hormuz, it's this, where are we looking for stability when everything around us feels uncertain? That's the challenge. Just ask yourself that question. If you're feeling unsettled, well, where are you looking for your peace? What are you anchored in right now? What are you focusing on? Because I can guarantee you that if you're feeling that way, most often times, it's because you're placing your identity and trust in something that was never meant to have identity and trust placed in it because it's going to change, it's going to shift, there's going to be struggles. Trust in God, find your peace there.

Conner Jones: [00:09:29] Man, that's good. It's actually a perfect segue into talking about prediction markets because the whole idea of a prediction market is trying to figure out what is the unsteady stuff that you can bet on. But, you know, tying it back to steadiness and like knowing that God is a constant, that's ultimately what we can tie back to with straight of Hormuz, global conflicts, life's trials, but also even prediction markets. So, yeah. Micah, you said it at the beginning. You're seeing prediction markets just make their way into literally every facet of life now. And that's kind of what I want to talk about. I mean, it's just at the center of our culture and it continues to grow. If you're not sure what a prediction market is, you're going to find out very soon because it just keeps blowing up. You may be seeing the names. It's definitely more mainstream. Kind of like, you know, 10 years ago if you said DraftKings or FanDuel, people may not know what those are, but now they're just a part of our culture, household names with sports betting. Household names now. That's what's happening with Polymarket and Kalshi. These are the two big prediction markets here in the United States. They're virtual. You just go on them, you go on the apps, you go on the website. And man, you can bet on basically anything. And it is endless. Like there is just an endless number of things you can bet on. It's crazy. It started kind of with sports betting and it has just made its way into every facet of life. You can bet on pop culture, politics, wars. So we're going to dive into all of that here. It's just rapidly growing and it's just impacting everyone and everything in our culture and it's going to keep growing unless the government kind of steps in and starts to regulate. And they're talking about it. They're talking about regulating. But right now they're pretty open. There's not a lot of regulation on these platforms. So, like I said, it's it's just not confined to sports betting anymore. We're seeing people, I mean, we're talking about the Oscars this past weekend. People were betting on. So to start, I just want to say, what is a prediction market? I'm leaning here on Dr. Katie F, she wrote an article for us here at Denson Forum. We'll link that in the show notes. It was called betting on suffering, the moral crisis of prediction markets. In that, she defines a prediction market as something that poses a question with out, no, sorry, with a defined outcome, often binary, such as will candidate X win if you're betting on politics in that sense. Traders then buy shares that pay $1 if the answer is yes and $0 if it's no. If those shares trade at 65 cents, then the market is implying roughly a 65% chance of a yes outcome. As people trade, buying when they think the chance is higher and selling when they think it's lower, the price updates in real time. The idea being that anyone who has a better read on a situation with new information or sharper analysis or faster synthesis, they can profit by pushing the price toward a more accurate forecast. In that sense, the market becomes a living estimate shaped by incentives rather than expert judgment. So I'm going to give you a few examples of what this means here, but just as a a broad over sweep, the prediction markets really came to the forefront of our culture in 2024 during the presidential election. That's when a lot of people started to hear about Polymarket and Kalshi because they accurately predicted the presidential election and most of the state elections too. It was way more accurate than the polling was back in 2024. They knew days in advance that Trump was going to win essentially. And it was all based off of all these people across the world placing bets and hedging on what they believed was going to happen. And it was just more accurate than polling was. And so it blew these things up. And now, since last December of 2025 to this December, up 400% in betting. That's nearly $12 billion that was traded in December alone of this past December. It's just growing like crazy. It's becoming ingrained in American life. Real life prognosticators are actually referencing markets in their trends of analyzing those trends in culture. For instance, Polymarket ads are now featured on the Golden Globe Awards. They were literally putting them up on the screen during the Golden Globes of who's most likely to win this award, what movie's going to win this award.

Micah Tomasella: [13:20] So, yeah, because in theory, people are voting with their money. So it's like, you know, they were more accurate than polls because there was this national sentiment within the country that they were wanting a change and more people, a lot more people put their money on Trump winning than Kamala. And so in theory, it really is interesting because on one hand, I'm thinking, you know, and again, I think, you know, I know the point of your segment is to say, is to explain kind of the pitfalls of it, but it is interesting as polling has become more and more inaccurate over the years, people will tell you how they really feel if their money's on the line. So it is interesting on like I think in some short spurts and in some certain examples could actually end up being useful, but I know you're about to get into the examples of some of the things that are being bet on in terms of wars and leadership captures and all kinds of things that's like, how would you even know that? Where are you getting that information? People with inside information, are they profiting off of it, you know, things like that. So, yeah.

Conner Jones: [14:21] Yeah, that's what we're going to dive into because you're right, technically, it might be a more accurate way to understand things happening in culture, but part of that is the insider trading because people with inside information are moving those markets to profit themselves. I just want to give a few examples on things that people are gambling on. I went to Polymarket's website yesterday just to see what's out there. Right now, you can bet on will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelsey get married by June 30th. Right now it's at a 46% chance yes. And then from there you can bet on what attendees will be there. Patrick Mahomes has a 92% chance of being there. Selena Gomez, 75% chance. You can literally bet yes or no on those things and then try to make a profit off of it. That is just so minuscule and so minute in terms of culture, but it's literally just seeping down into everything. You can bet on will Pam Bondi be out as the attorney general by March 31st? 5% chance yes right now. There's a whole section, this is kind of where it starts to get crazy. There is an entire section on Polymarket just for Epstein stuff. Betting on files, betting on arrests, betting on oustings, all this stuff. And I'm like, that is it just feels dirty. Like you're betting on something that is like

Micah Tomasella: [15:25] Feels a little icky. Yeah.

Conner Jones: [15:27] It feels icky. Those are there are real life victims and then there's people profiting off of it. The straight of Hormuz traffic, Micah. This was interesting because I knew you were talking about the straight of Hormuz, so I was going to pull this up. Will the straight of Hormuz traffic

Micah Tomasella: [15:38] Oh, it was.

Conner Jones: [15:40] Yes. Will the straight of Hormuz traffic return to normal by the end of April? 26% of people say yes. It was at 78% a week ago. So that's that's what you're talking about. Like the act of predictions of like a week ago people felt really good about the war maybe coming to a close and the straight of Hormuz opening up. A week later, it's down to 26%. So you're you're right. People are putting their money in and really trying to understand where things are headed. Right now, it doesn't look like the straight of Hormuz is going to open up by the end of April. I mean, it that's going to be a tough battle.

Micah Tomasella: [16:09] And then the second it looks like it's going to, it's going to flip right on back. Yeah.

Conner Jones: [16:13] You're exactly right. Here's another interesting one right now. The Republican presidential nominee for 2028. So people are putting in their bets that they're hoping will pay out years from now. Right now, JD Vance is at the lead of that with 39%. Marco Rubio is up there in second place and his stake is rising, which is what a lot of people are pointing to. They're like, hey, Marco Rubio keeps rising in the prediction markets. Maybe he'll be the next presidential nominee. Trump watches these things. Tucker Carlson went viral this week for thinking he's going to get arrested. That shot his chances up to 3% on these prediction markets. Even Tom Brady is in there at 1%. There's a bunch of people at 1%. A bunch of people.

Micah Tomasella: [16:46] Brady? Yeah, I know, right?

Conner Jones: [16:47] So, that's what I'm talking about here, man. There's just so much that you can bet on. Where it gets really weird though is like things like this. Will another country strike Iran by March 31st? There's a 20% chance of yes on that right now. People are betting on countries getting involved in a war. And then here's the craziest one. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? There's a 4% chance yes on Polymarket right now. People are betting on Jesus's return, dude. That is just like crazy to me.

Micah Tomasella: [17:15] And people, wait, so so like if if I get in there and bet money on no on that one, I would make money?

Conner Jones: [17:24] Technically, yeah, I think so.

Micah Tomasella: [17:27] Okay, well that that seems like a really easy one. I'm not encouraging anybody to go do that, but because because ultimately like as long as he like if he returns, whatever you bet doesn't matter. Just FYI. If he doesn't return and and he terries as as my friends in the in my upbringing in the Southern Baptist faith, if he terries, then you can just keep making that money, right? I mean, that's such an interesting bet. I'm sorry, that's uh throws me off a little bit.

Conner Jones: [17:56] Because it's down at 4% chance of yes, your bet on no would barely profit. You'd make a few cents on the dollar. Yeah.

Micah Tomasella: [18:01] Barely make anything. Like like four cents on the dollar.

Conner Jones: [18:03] Right. It's not like a risky bet. That's kind of the thought here is Yeah. People will bet more on the riskier things, right? To try to make a quick buck. So, one of the things that I want to point out here though, the prediction markets, man, they're just having lots of dangers and not just for our nation, but also I think for our souls, people who are getting involved in this, but even those of us that are like analyzing it, we can start to see destructive consequences. But one of the primary issues here is like you said, Micah, man, it's enabling legal insider trading. And ultimately, like I'm going to get into this, it's presenting a national security risk. So, just as some background, Kalshi is one of the platforms I mentioned. It is US regulated to an extent. It does require users to identify themselves, but Polymarket, which is what I just read all those odds off of, is not fully regulated for use in the US and does not require identification and relies strictly on cryptocurrency, so it can't be tracked or traced to people's bank accounts. So that's how people are able to go in here and kind of like anonymously make bets even if they have inside information, right? So there are people with power or just knowledge that are betting and making profits. For instance, even in the pop culture thing, let's let's do the Taylor Swift Travis Kelsey wedding thing. Anybody who's close to them could easily go place a bet because they know when the wedding's going to be. I mean, Travis Kelsey or Taylor Swift could go place a bet. They could drop a million dollars on it because they know when the wedding when or when it will be, if it's going to be before June 30th or not. Nothing is preventing them from doing that, which is crazy to me, but it's also, this is what people say, these markets, they know insider trading is not great, but they also say that's part of the the advantage. You know insiders are in there and so they are offering a more predictive outcome. When you know insiders are betting, it gives you a better understanding of what might actually happen here. But just a couple more examples. Let's just say a Disney board member last month, we talked about the new Disney CEO. A few hours beforehand went and put a bet in. Nothing's stopping him from doing that. When he knows who the new CEO is going to be, he could go place a bet a few hours before it becomes public knowledge. Right. This year, $105 million was wagered on the Oscars in these prediction markets, which is crazy. Let's just say one of the handful of people that actually knows the results before the show goes on and changes the market. Because if you put a big bet in, it changes the entire market even a few hours before. That would spoil the entire Oscars. The whole thrill of the Oscars is seeing who's going to win and not knowing the outcome. Yeah, there's a lot of that. Even during the show this year, Leonardo DiCaprio's odds for best actor were going up in the hours of the programming. It's just constantly moving. Here's where it gets weird though. When we start to talk about politics and national security. Even Senator Jeff Merkley of Oregon just introduced legislation that would actually ban members of Congress from betting on these prediction markets, including the president and the vice president. And he said, we've got more than 400 members of the house, you've got 100 senators, you've got tons of staff. I'm sure many of them are currently making bets. I mean, he's calling out his own colleagues there and he's like, we got to stop betting on political decisions and speech links and retirement announcements and legislative decisions. I mean, people are betting on the words that are going to be used in speeches. People are betting on how long Trump's state of the Union speech was going to be and there's people in the know on these things. This leads into probably the most consequential insider trading that happens in DC and just around the world. And that is betting on national security. There was a big story that came out in January that really gained a lot of steam and brought attention to this. And that was because hours before the US military went and captured Nicholas Maduro in Venezuela, an anonymous user went to Polymarket and bet tens of thousands of dollars that Mr. Maduro would fall in the next 24 hours. That fueled speculation essentially that a government official went in there and placed bets using confidential information about the plans because that person profited $410,000. Like I said, nothing's preventing somebody with information on that operation in the Pentagon or in the White House from going and placing a bet on their phone real fast, stepping out of the room, placing a bet and then coming back in to make sure the operation goes according to plan, right?

Micah Tomasella: [21:52] Yeah.

Conner Jones: [21:54] Even in the hours leading up to the US and Israel attacks on Iran on February 28th, a trader named Maga my man bet big on strikes happening that day. He won $553,000. That prompted Senator Chris Murphy, he's a Democrat out of Connecticut to post on X, this is insane that this is legal. He accused members of Trump's orbit from profiting off of war and death.

Micah Tomasella: [22:18] Totally. Totally. How on earth could you know that? How would you know those things otherwise? Yeah, absolutely.

Conner Jones: [22:24] Yeah. There was an Israel Defense Force reservist who was also recently indicted for using classified information to place Polymarket bets. This is a national security issue, Micah. That's what I'm trying to call out here. It's not only unethical, but the bets like this are manipulating specific markets so much so that an enemy could be like closely watching this market and if they see it just rise especially in the hours before.

Micah Tomasella: [22:45] I would be. I'm sure they are.

Conner Jones: [22:47] Now enemies are starting to learn, we got to watch these prediction markets. Somebody with knowledge could be betting and raising and then we know that strikes are coming or we know a raid is coming. This definitely puts our like troops in harm's way, right?

Micah Tomasella: [22:58] Yeah. Yeah, man.

Conner Jones: [23:00] Absolutely. So, all that to say, prediction markets, man, they're just permeating our culture. I wanted to bring it up because it's having, I think having a good understanding of what they are is essential because they're going to just keep getting bigger and bigger. You're starting to see them pop up on all your apps, on social media, on sports, on TV, now the news, everything. So you need to have a good understanding of what they are because they're going to be part of daily life going forward most likely. It's also just, man, I feel like it's upending morality for a lot of Americans and people around the world. Like this is just a it's not the same thing as like sitting at a poker table where you just get up and leave and take your cash. We're talking about people are starting to bet on insane things and then they're doing insane things. There was a headline this week that went super viral from Emmanuel Fabian. He's a journalist for the Times of Israel. His headline read, gamblers trying to win a bet on Polymarket are vowing to kill me if I don't rewrite an Iran missile story. Literally, I read the the article this morning. It's crazy. These people were upset that he wrote in an article that one missile had hit on March 10th, but they had all bet no on missiles hitting Israel on March 10th and they were mad. They all lost their money. And they were trying to say, no, it wasn't a missile, it was a it was a misfire or something. You know, like they were trying to get him to change his entire report and the actual facts of the story to basically help them win their bet. And when he didn't do it, they started threatening his life.

Micah Tomasella: [24:14] Well, I mean, that's and we've seen that on a smaller scale with sports betting, right? Like athletes and their performances that, you know, we're placing bets on how they're going to perform. And if they don't perform in the way that people have placed their money, they receive a lot of hate and vitriol. That's on a smaller scale compared to this one, but goodness gracious.

Conner Jones: [24:34] Yeah, I actually, there was this really cool article that came out this week by McKay Coppins at the Atlantic and he was given $10,000 by the Atlantic to bet on the NFL season for the year. Just do this, it was an experiment. And he wrote down, it's like an hour long read, but I read the whole thing the other day. It was insane to read how it just corrupted him. He had $10,000 that wasn't even his own money, but he was so stressed out. He started to dislike players, he started to dislike the sport, all this stuff because he was so bought into trying to win the bets.

Micah Tomasella: [25:01] What it does.

Conner Jones: [25:02] What it does, man, it can just corrupt your soul. And he talks about that. He's like, I had to get off. It was just it was changing my entire life. I want to quote, going back to Dr. F and her article that I mentioned a minute ago. I want to quote her here because I think she ties it up perfectly. She says, the moral crisis of prediction markets lies in their industrialization of the human experience. When you buy shares betting that a war will escalate, a pandemic will worsen or a public figure will die, you are financially incentivized to bet on catastrophe. Your profit requires someone else's loss, not in the abstract sense of a stock trade, but in the most literal sense imaginable, the widow, the orphan, the refugee reduced to a line item. Oof. Dude, that's like a gut punch of a sentence. That was great. Just a great summary of what these mean and the morality behind prediction markets. So, how can we just respond today as Christians? You know, we've talked about this before with sports betting on this podcast, like the Bible does not strictly say you cannot gamble. It does give a lot of warnings. I'm going to read some scriptures here. And you have to be careful about if you know you're likely to be trapped into an addiction with gambling or something, don't touch it. I mean, it's just like, you got to you got to use wisdom here and discernment. Don't touch it if it's going to lead you down a destructive path. Honestly, I would just say avoid these markets as a whole. I just play it careful from the get go. Yeah, you might think you know what's going to happen, but we can't predict the future. Just stay out of it. It's not good. Even if it's something as innocent as a wedding for Taylor Swift and Travis Kelsey. Maybe you're not betting on catastrophe. I would just avoid it if I were you because what we don't ever hear about, we hear about all the right predictions. They, yeah, I predicted the election correctly and all that. We don't ever really hear about the wrong predictions when a bunch of people lost their money, right? Like no one talks about when the prediction markets were inaccurate.

Micah Tomasella: [26:42] Well, there's so much money in these prediction markets because so many people are losing money. Right. I mean, that's I mean, someone has to in in this case, for the company to win, that means the people, the betters have to lose.

Conner Jones: [26:54] That's man, that is just the the truth of all betting, right? The house always wins.

Micah Tomasella: [27:01] Yes, they do.

Conner Jones: [27:02] Yeah, you can get some wins here or there, but the house always wins in the big picture. Ultimately, yeah. Right. Yeah, like I said, the Bible doesn't say you can't gamble, but it does offer some profound wisdom about the idols of greed and the addiction and the desire for quick wealth. First Corinthians 6:12 says, all things are lawful for me, but not all things are helpful. All things are lawful for me, but I will not be dominated by anything. First Timothy 6:10 declares, the love of money is the root of all kinds of evil, and some people craving money have wandered from the true faith and pierced themselves with many sorrows. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, we're called to love our neighbors, not exploit them for profit, essentially. Exodus 22:25 says, if you lend money to one of my people among you who is needy, do not treat it like a business deal, charge no interest. We got to stop profiting off of death and destruction and immoral decay, right? Like that's ultimately what it comes to and that's what these prediction markets are doing. I would just say as a kind of like final takeaway, rather than chasing fortune or predicting the future, we're called to pursue biblical contentment, integrity and generosity, Micah.

Micah Tomasella: [28:02] Love it, man. Love it, man. Great stuff. You want to jump into the mailbag?

Conner Jones: [28:07] Yeah, let's do it. Yeah, we love hearing from you guys. As we always say, and we got some messages this week and so we're going to touch on one of those now and we'll maybe hit on some more in the future. But yeah, you can always message us questions or topic ideas at [email protected]. You can email us there or follow us at Instagram at Culture Brief podcast, shoot us a DM there. This one actually was a DM from Instagram. This anonymous listener sent us a few videos of James Talarico. And if you don't know who that is, I'll tell you here in a second, but he was speaking in these videos that he sent us and he this listener said, I believe he's a heretic. There's a lot that we can take with that phrase, but for those who don't know who Talarico is, he just won the primary to represent the Democrat Party in the race for the Texas Senate seat. He's going to either face Ken Paxton or John Cornyn here in Texas. Micah and I are both in Texas and so we're watching this race closely. Talarico, man, he's well-spoken, he's calm demeanor. A lot of people have kind of like compared him a little bit to Barack Obama in the way that he talks and presents himself and dresses and his mannerisms and all of that. He's gained a lot of popularity for that style and for his Christian background and the way that he tries to tie Christianity to a lot of his policy ideas. He says he hopes to counter what he sees as a conservative takeover of the American church. But man, those those those Christian views, his theological views have definitely been controversial. He believes scripture never actually says anything about abortion or transgenderism or gay marriage. And I would say we probably don't have time to dive into all of those things right now and all of Talarico's positions, but Dr. Jim Denson, who you guys heard on here a couple weeks ago talking about the war in Iran, he wrote two articles last week that I think I'm going to point you all to because they're great. He they're titled explaining James Talarico's theology and responding to James Talarico's theology. We'll link those in the show notes. You can also find them at Densonform.org and he offers just kind of a a way of addressing Talarico's positions and then a biblical response to those. But Micah, any just initial thoughts on Talarico before we move on?

Micah Tomasella: [29:57] No, I I think I think people are looking at him as an alternative to the status quo. And I understand that part. He comes from a more liberal PCA background. What is he's Presbyterian, right?

Conner Jones: [30:12] I think he's Presbyterian. He goes to like he goes to a Presbyterian seminary.

Micah Tomasella: [30:15] Yeah, but there's like there was a split, you know, there's there's a split between the more liberal view of things from the Presbyterians and then there's more a conservative leaning, you know, who would align more with the ministry's standards of what scripture says and stuff like that. So, you know, he just comes from that that strain. And so like a lot of these thoughts like are permeated like in those churches. So I I don't think what he's saying would be super odd if you attended one of those churches. It's just Jim's articles really helped me process through this personally as well and I would just definitely point everybody to go listen to those.

Conner Jones: [30:47] Yeah, we may come back and talk about Talarico in the future, especially as we get closer to midterms, but for now, go read those articles, get an understanding of who he is and the belief systems that he's kind of got built around him. He's gaining popularity. He went on Joe Rogan, that helped him just boost his profile. So you're going to keep seeing his face and name in news and on social media and everything. But yeah, that's kind of the update there. Thanks for sending that message in to that listener and we'll continue to address y'all's questions. Micah, let's pop into check in.

Micah Tomasella: [31:12] Let's do check in. All right. I'm going to start checking on a somber note. 13 US military members have been killed in this conflict in Iran so far. No clear idea on when this will end, but God bless our troops. God bless the people who, I mean, the stories that's coming out, you know, they're coming out of the families that they're leaving behind, their husbands, their wives, their kids who are left without them because they're out there defending our freedom. And so, God bless our troops. And the sacrifice that they're willing to make when they go to work every day is a different sacrifice most of us are will ever have to make or will ever be asked to make. So, thank you to our troops. God bless them. And Lord, please protect them. Secondly, Israel strikes this week, killed more of Iran's top leaders, including Larijani, who was kind of the main guy that was calling the shots, it seemed like, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, who the Israeli military says was and at that time was the regime's effective leader. He was the previous Ayatollah's right-hand man. And then, finally, we mentioned this at the beginning, watched it last night. We're recording on Wednesday, March 18th. The game happened on Tuesday night, March 17th in Miami. The United States made it to the championship game against Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic and they lost three to two. It was a gut punch. Congratulations to Venezuela, but I'm sad that our boys from the US lost.

Conner Jones: [32:46] Yeah. Did you see this week that Trump threatened to, not I guess maybe it's not a threat. I don't know how you classify it. He wants to make Venezuela the first 51st state now.

Micah Tomasella: [32:53] I read that. It it honestly was like a it didn't come, I mean, I I guess like if you would take that as a threat as like a Venezuelan, but the way that he wrote it was more of like, you know, and we'll see how things go and maybe we'll make him a state. It almost, it was almost phrased, you know, because we've seen all the aggressive stuff he puts out. That that didn't come off aggressive to me. It was like, you know, maybe we'll just bless them and just make them a state.

Conner Jones: [33:17] Bless them. Yeah, there's a he makes it sound so simple. Like you can just add a state all of a sudden. I don't think just annex them. Yeah.

Micah Tomasella: [33:25] Yeah, man, I don't know.

Conner Jones: [33:27] The other thing that happened was obviously the Oscars were on Sunday night. I made predictions last week on last week's episode. I only got two of those four right, but Oh wow. You know, I was I was sticking the riskier. Did you place any bets? Yeah, I you know, I was out there on Polymarket. No, not really. No, I got two of my four predictions right. One of those was Paul Thomas Anderson winning best director for one battle after another. Jesse Buckley winning best actress for Hamnet. Now, here here were the here was the shocking one. Michael B. Jordan won best actor for the movie Sinners. He is one of the most beloved actors in Hollywood still and he just man, he upset Timothy Chalamet who was expected for Marty Supreme but did not win. And people love Michael B. Jordan. I mean, he's in the Creed movies, he's in the Black Panther movies. He's great. Now he's won. He played twins in the movie Sinners, so I'm not totally shocked. I mean, playing twins in a movie is kind of hard. And then one battle after another did win best picture. I wasn't fully surprised by that. It was very it has progressive kind of leaning towards it and so Hollywood loves a good progressive political movie. Leonardo DiCaprio was the star, so it just it was going to be catapulted up there. And then the top winners of the night were Sinners with four wins. And like I said, one battle after another, it got six wins on the night. And then K-pop Demon Hunters, I'm not even sure we've addressed that movie on this podcast, but K-pop Demon Hunters was technically the biggest song of the year or biggest song technically and movie of the year, most watched movie in the world in 2025, still being watched like crazy. There's a lot of questions about the content there. So I would actually point you guys to an article we have by Dr. Ryan Denson. He wrote it last year as the movie was blowing up. Should Christians watch K-pop Demon Hunters? Because I know a lot of families are questioning that too. Like should they watch this movie that has the name like the word demon in its name? Is that okay for Christians to watch? He takes you through that. So go read that. We'll link that in the show notes as well. But the Oscars, man, they're here, they're done and I'm already ready for the next one because this upcoming year we got Dune 3, the Odyssey, a lot of big movies upcoming. So

Micah Tomasella: [35:18] The Odyssey, I'm looking forward to that one. I might actually go to the theater to see that one.

Conner Jones: [35:21] You want to go together? Should we go together and see the Odyssey?

Micah Tomasella: [35:24] Uh, we'll see. I just got denied. Sounds fun, bro. Let's go. I'll I'll have my people get with your people. Yeah, okay. Literally like your wife gets with my wife and text her, hey, can

Micah Tomasella: [35:41] All right, what else we got, Micah? What's coming up this week? All right. So going to give you something to tune into. Really only going to give you one thing to tune into because it's all that really matters. March Madness is upon us. It's March and it's a lot of madness. So March Madness is here. The first four tipped off on the 17th and the 18th. So Texas beat NC State at like a buzzer beater to really kick off the whole thing. There's some more playing games. That was awesome. Then the real chaos starts. Does that mean Texas made it into the tournament? Is that what that indicates? Correct. Correct. Yep. Yep. They were the first four in or sorry, the last four in. So therefore they all had to play each other and then two actually get in and get spots on the bracket. But the real chaos starts on round 64 on March 19th through 20th. And from there it's nonstop through the final four on April 4th and the national championship taking place on April 6th. So here's what to watch for, okay? The number one seeds, and again, by the way, this is men's college basketball I'm talking about. I don't even think I said that. This is men's college basketball. It is the playoff format that eventually crowns a champion. It happens every single year. Starts with 64 teams, gets you down all the way to two teams. There's always a ton of upsets, always a ton of Cinderella stories and teams. It is always a great time. And I have never ever gotten close to a perfect bracket in my entire life. And I've been filling them out since I was a wee lad. So, the number one seeds, they look strong, but this tournament is all about upsets and they usually hit hard that first Thursday and Friday, right when the tournament starts, you're going to have a 13 knock off a four, a 12 knock off a five. And what I mean by that's a 12 seed knock off a five seed. It is always awesome because you just have these really small schools that beat these gigantic schools and the passion is there. It's incredible. So you can watch the games on CBS, TBS, TNT, True TV or stream them on March Madness Live. They have their own streaming platform. So if you're filling out a bracket, here's my advice. Do not overthink it. Okay? Pick a few upsets, maybe pick a lot of upsets, trust a couple teams and just enjoy the chaos. Don't try to overanalyze this and don't start asking chat GBT to pick. Trust me, just do a little bit of research on the teams and make your picks. Trust your heart.

Conner Jones: [37:57] Or do what I've heard a lot of people do and just pick based off of the mascots. If whichever one you like better or the colors, whatever it is, you just it's so random of what's going to happen that you're there's really no way to fully predict it. I know. I know. And so and look here, the prediction markets are going wild right now in March Madness. They're trying to capitalize big time. You're going to see them all up in March Madness. You're going to see their names on everything because they want you to predict, they want your money to predict and predict and predict. But if anything can prove us as just infallible humans, it's March Madness when we cannot predict anything. It is you can we all make a bracket. I'm going to make like five brackets this week for different leagues and stuff and none of them will get even close to winning. I think it's like a one in 120 billion chance of making a perfect bracket. You just can't.

Micah Tomasella: [38:38] Because there's just so many variations. There's so many picks. And then if you get one wrong in the round of 64, then it blows up your whole bracket. It blows it up. I because then you get to to the round of 32 and then the round of 16 and then the elite eight, then the final four, then the championship, right? It's it's you got to get it right from start to finish. I don't think there's ever been a perfect bracket.

Conner Jones: [39:00] No, there's been a few times I think in history where people had a perfect round of 64, like that first round, which is already insane to predict that correctly. And then it just gets ruined on the the next round of 32 or whatnot. So, man, have fun watching March Madness. That's going to be a blast. As always, it's madness. If you need a team to root for, I would suggest Miami of Ohio who was almost undefeated in their season, almost left out of the March Madness tournament even though they were like what, Micah, 31 and one or something like that? Crazy. Yeah. Crazy to be left out of the Mac. Yeah. Out of the Mac, smaller school and they are kind of seen as like a an underdog overdog. I don't know. A little bit of a mix. But go cheer for Miami of Ohio. And thanks for joining us on this week's episode of the Culture Brief podcast. We are a Denson Forum podcast. All the articles that we mentioned, all the videos, anything else that we mentioned here will be in the show notes. If you enjoyed today's episode, please like, subscribe, rate and review the show and share it with a friend and we'll see you next Thursday.

Micah Tomasella: [39:54] Bye.